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อัปเดต 2026-09-07
Fault-tree & event-tree analysis
FTA · ETA · minimal cut sets
Builds a fault tree per deviation with AND/OR boolean logic to get the combined top-event probability plus every minimal cut set, and an event tree that branches an initiating event through successive safety functions to enumerate all outcome probabilities — the logic behind a failure or a consequence sequence, not just a single number.
เมื่อไรจึงใช้
- A deviation's cause structure is genuinely AND/OR (multiple simultaneous failures needed) rather than a single credited IPL.
- You need to show which combination of failures (a minimal cut set) actually drives the top event, to target the cheapest fix.
- Tracing how an initiating event can end in different consequences depending on which safety functions do or don't work.
ค่าที่ต้องกรอก
| ค่า | คำอธิบาย |
|---|---|
| Basic events | Leaf-node failure probabilities feeding the tree's AND/OR gates. |
| Safety functions (ETA) | Each branch point's success/failure probability along the event-tree path. |
คำนวณอย่างไร
The fault tree evaluates its boolean gate structure bottom-up to a single top-event probability and enumerates minimal cut sets (the smallest failure combinations that alone cause the top event); the event tree enumerates all 2^k outcome paths for k branch points, each with its combined probability.
สมการ
Fault-tree top-event probability (OR of independent events)
For an OR-combination of independent basic events P_i; the general case is evaluated via the full AND/OR gate structure, not just a flat OR.
Event-tree outcome count
k = number of binary branch points (success/failure at each safety function) — every path enumerated with its probability.
ข้อควรระวัง
noteMinimal-cut-set probability approximations assume independence between basic events — a shared-cause failure across two 'independent' branches isn't modelled unless you represent it as its own basic event.
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